USMLE Step 1 pass probability calculator.
Step 1 is pass/fail, so the question is not "what score?" but "how likely am I to pass?" Enter your NBME CBSSA, UWSA or other practice scores to estimate that chance.
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Private by design: the numbers you type never leave your browser. Passing standards reviewed ; see the methodology for every assumption.
How to use the Step 1 pass probability calculator
- Choose the practice exam and type the three-digit equivalent score on its report.
- Enter how many weeks ago you took it, and add other practice exams if you have them.
- Press Calculate to see your chance of passing and where your estimate sits against the passing standard.
USMLE Step 1: practice score and chance of passing
| NBME CBSSA score | Chance of passing | Where that sits |
|---|---|---|
| 175 | 1% | High risk |
| 180 | 4% | High risk |
| 185 | 12% | High risk |
| 190 | 27% | At risk |
| 195 | 48% | At risk |
| 196 (passing standard) | 52% | Borderline |
| 200 | 69% | Borderline |
| 205 | 85% | Likely above the line |
| 210 | 95% | Well above the line |
| 215 | 98% | Well above the line |
| 220 | >99% | Well above the line |
How the Step 1 pass probability is calculated
Step 1 no longer reports a score, but USMLE still defines a passing standard on its legacy three-digit scale: 196. Practice exams still report scores on that scale. The calculator treats each practice score as an estimate of where your real result falls, adds an uncertainty that depends on the exam and the age of the score, combines several scores, and reports the chance that the result is at or above 196.
The Step 1 passing standard
Step 1 has been reported as pass/fail since January 26, 2022. USMLE lists 196 as the passing standard on the three-digit scale; that number is no longer shown to examinees. USMLE reviews standards about every four years, so confirm the current standard on usmle.org.
What to do with the answer
A high chance is reassuring but not a reason to stop reviewing. A borderline or low chance is a reason to look closely at your weakest systems, your timed-block pacing and your test date, not a verdict. If you are worried, talk to your dean's office or an advisor with your actual scores.
Frequently asked questions
Is there a passing score for USMLE Step 1?
Step 1 is reported only as pass or fail. USMLE lists 196 as the passing standard on the legacy three-digit scale, which is no longer shown to examinees. The standard applies to exams since January 26, 2022 and is reviewed about every four years.
What NBME score predicts passing Step 1?
There is no safe cutoff on a practice test. Near 196 the chance of passing is close to a coin flip on this model, and it rises steadily as the score goes up. The table below shows the chance for each score on an NBME form.
How is the Step 1 pass probability calculated?
Each practice score is an estimate of your exam result with an uncertainty that depends on the exam and how old the score is. Several scores are combined, and the probability is the chance that the combined result is at or above the passing standard. The methodology page lists every assumption.
Does pass/fail mean Step 1 scores no longer matter?
The number is no longer reported, but passing is still required, and your preparation carries into Step 2 CK, which does report a score. Many students use practice scores to decide when to sit the exam.
Does the NBME CBSSA report a Step 1 pass probability?
Yes. NBME's CBSSA score report includes NBME's own estimated probability of passing Step 1, with a note that it is not a guarantee. This calculator is independent: it can combine several exams and shows its assumptions, so use NBME's estimate as the primary source for that form and this as a second opinion.
Is my data saved?
No. The calculator runs in your browser and nothing you enter is sent to the server, stored or logged.
Keep going
- USMLE Step 2 CK score predictor: Combine several practice scores into one Step 2 CK estimate with a range.
- NBME score converter: Convert one practice score to an estimated exam score with a range.
- USMLE score release date calculator: Find the typical release window for Step 1, Step 2 CK or Step 3 from your test date.
- USMLE passing scores for Step 1, Step 2 CK and Step 3
- NBME self-assessments and practice exams for the USMLE
Sources
- USMLE: examination results and scoring
- NBME: Comprehensive Basic Science Self-Assessment (CBSSA)
- Methodology and assumptions for these calculators
Estimates only. These tools give statistical estimates from practice scores using a simple model with stated assumptions. They are not affiliated with or endorsed by USMLE, NBME, FSMB, UWorld or AMBOSS, and they do not predict or guarantee any exam result. Passing standards can change; confirm them on usmle.org. Educational content is not medical, academic or career advice.