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METHODOLOGY
How the score tools work.
Every number the calculators use is listed here, with its status. Data as of 2026-11-01.
The model in plain words
- Each practice score is treated as an estimate of your exam score (with a bias of 0 points).
- Each estimate has an uncertainty (a standard deviation) that depends on the exam and grows with the weeks since you took it: the combined size is the square root of the exam's base uncertainty squared plus (weeks × 0.5) squared.
- Several estimates are averaged with weights proportional to 1 / uncertainty squared. Errors from the same student are related, so the average's uncertainty assumes a correlation of 0.5 between exams and is never smaller than 8 points.
- The chance of passing is the normal-distribution probability that the exam score is at or above the passing standard (using the point half a score below it, because scores are whole numbers).
- The 80% range is the estimate plus or minus 1.282 times the combined uncertainty. Chances above 99% or below 1% are shown as such, never as certainty.
Passing standards used
| Exam | Standard | Applies to exams on or after | Reported as |
|---|---|---|---|
| USMLE Step 1 | 196 (legacy three-digit scale) | 2022-01-26 | pass/fail |
| USMLE Step 2 CK | 218 | 2025-07-01 | three-digit score |
Practice-exam uncertainty (assumptions)
Status: editorial-assumption. The uncertainty values below are editorial assumptions chosen to be conservative. They are NOT published or validated by NBME, UWorld, AMBOSS or USMLE. Replace them with sourced calibration data when it is available, and update as_of.
| Exam | Practice exam | Base uncertainty |
|---|---|---|
| Step 1 | NBME Comprehensive Basic Science Self-Assessment (CBSSA) | ±9 |
| Step 1 | UWorld Self-Assessment (UWSA) for Step 1 | ±10 |
| Step 1 | AMBOSS Step 1 self-assessment | ±11 |
| Step 1 | Another practice exam that reports a three-digit score | ±12 |
| Step 2 CK | NBME Comprehensive Clinical Science Self-Assessment (CCSSA) | ±9 |
| Step 2 CK | UWorld Self-Assessment (UWSA) for Step 2 CK | ±10 |
| Step 2 CK | AMBOSS Step 2 CK self-assessment | ±11 |
| Step 2 CK | Another practice exam that reports a three-digit score | ±12 |
The score release date calculators
These use dates, not statistics. They apply the timing USMLE publishes on its results and scoring page and its score-reports questions, reviewed 2026-11-01:
- Scores are released on Wednesdays, generally to examinees who tested within 4 weeks before the release date. "Typically by" is the last Wednesday on or before 4 weeks (28 days) after your test date, counting a release exactly 4 weeks later as within the window.
- "Plan around" is 8 weeks after your test date, because USMLE advises allowing at least that long and asks you to contact it if nothing has arrived in that time.
- USMLE does not release new scores the week following some holidays (Independence Day, Thanksgiving Day, New Year's Day). The calculator flags a holiday in or just after your window but does not shift the date, because USMLE does not publish the exact holiday schedule.
- For a two-day exam such as Step 3, USMLE does not say which day starts the count. The calculator uses your last testing day.
- USMLE does not publish release dates by test date. The results are estimates of a typical window, and delays happen.
What the tools do not do
- They do not use your percent correct, only the three-digit score on the report. NBME's lookup tables for the CBSSA and CCSSA do that conversion.
- They do not know your test-day conditions, your trend, or how your errors cluster by subject.
- The uncertainty values are assumptions, not results of a published validation. Treat the range, not the single number, as the answer.
- Nothing you enter is stored or sent to the server: the calculation runs in your browser.
Questions or corrections? Use the contact form. Related reading: all USMLE guides.